A football goal prediction model
Profit On The Pitch is a probability model for in-play football. We score live match state, output the probability of the next goal, and publish every prediction so the model can be judged on its real-world record — not on its best clip.
Probability First
Every output is a calibrated probability — not a tip. We measure ourselves against the market's implied probability, not gut feel.
Discipline
A fixed model. No mid-game overrides, no hindsight tweaks. The same rules apply to every match we score.
Calibration
Predicted probabilities are tested against actual outcomes. If the model says 60%, it should hit roughly 60% of the time — and we publish when it doesn't.
Transparency
Every prediction is logged with its inputs, probability and the live odds at the time. Hits, misses and pushes — nothing hidden.
Reasoning Shown
Each prediction comes with the drivers behind it — shots, xG, attacks, cards — so you can see why the model leaned that way.
Honest Limits
No model is right every time. Probabilities are estimates, variance is real, and using the output at a bookmaker is your decision and your risk. 18+.
How the model works
The model takes live match data — score, minute, shots, shots on target, xG, dangerous attacks, corners, cards and possession — and combines them with the live market price to estimate the probability of at least one more goal before full time.
Each prediction is stored with its inputs, the model's probability and the bookmaker's implied probability at the time. That lets us track two things over time: how often the model is right (hit rate) and how well its probabilities are calibrated against actual outcomes. When the two drift apart, the weights get re-fit from data, not from opinion.
Profit On The Pitch is an analytical tool, not a tipping or betting service. Subscriptions provide access to the model and its tracked record — they are not financial advice, not a guarantee of returns, and not a substitute for your own judgement.